8.27.2010

Israel stands on the brink of seriously irrational behavior

Israel may have agreed to return to peace talks with the PLO on neutral territory, but that should give little comfort to those fearing the Netanyahu government is prepping for a large-scale offensive on the Iranian nuclear program and anyone that stands between them and their objectives. There is no threat posed to the Jewish state by the Lebanese military, which was largely shelled into total submission during the last irrational Israeli aggression. I would not be surprised at all to wake up to a war between Iran and Israel with the US Marines caught between the two in Baghdad, which is not something our amateurish president is even close to capable of managing...

Amplify’d from www.jpost.com


'Israel ready to destroy Lebanese Army in four hours'


By JPOST.COM STAFF 

08/27/2010 14:19


Report: Lebanese paper claims US envoy told LAF chief that if border incident occurred again IDF would enact plan to destroy Lebanese military within four hours.


The US warned Lebanon that if it did not prevent any recurrence of the border-fire incident that occurred earlier this month, the IDF would destroy the Lebanese Armed Forces within four hours, Israel Radio cited a report by Lebanese newspaper A-Liwaa on Friday.

According to the report, Frederick Hoff, assistant to US Middle East Peace Envoy George Mitchell, told Lebanese Army chief of staff Jean Kahwaji that Israel was ready to implement a plan to destroy within four hours all Lebanese military infrastructure, including army bases and offices, should a similar confrontation occur in the future.

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IDF Lt.-Col. (res.) Dov Harari, 45, was killed and Capt. (res.) Ezra Lakia was seriously wounded, as well three LAF soldiers and one Lebanese journalist killed, when both sides exchanged fire after IDF soldiers attempted to cut down a tree on the Israeli side of the border.

The IDF had informed the UNIFIL peacekeeping force along the border ahead of time of the intended tree-clearing operation.



UNIFIL later confirmed that the IDF troops were on the Israeli side of the border
when the incident occurred, contradicting LAF claims that Lebanese
sniper fire directed at the Israeli troops had been justified by an
incursion upon Lebanese territory.

LEBANESE SOLDIERS patrol in Kafr Kila, across the border from Metulla, on Wednesday.
The Jerusalem Post
See more at www.jpost.com
 

8.24.2010

Forbes.com - Say Yes to the Yen - Shawn Baldwin

Forbes.com


Say Yes To The Yen
Shawn Baldwin 08.17.10, 4:55 AM ET

The Japanese yen recently rallied to 15-year highs against the U.S. dollar along with hitting highs against other major currencies. Throughout the economic crisis, the yen has continued to display strength; while other currencies have seen their gains reduced significantly, the yen has gained over 40% since the economic crisis began--almost 8% of that has been over the last 2 months.

Why does the yen continue to rise?

Because of narrowing interest rate differentials, concerns about the world economic outlook and the possibility of intervention.

Japan's finance minister has allayed those fears, stating that the yen's rise continues to be set by the markets. It is easy to understand why some feel that the Minister would want to intervene. The rising yen against the dollar makes Japanese goods considerably more expensive for American consumers--Japan Inc.’s largest export customer.

The continued strengthening of the yen makes the revenue earned from Japanese companies' U.S. subsidiaries worth less when the repatriated revenues are converted from dollars into yen. This has already caused Japan's business groups to cry out for a reduction in tax rates--but surprisingly, to be steadfast in supporting no intervention.

The currency’s strength certainly isn’t due to Japanese domestic economic strength. Instead, the yen's strength is a by-product of private sector recycling of the current account surplus and international purchases of Japanese assets. U.S. dollar weakness is a strong factor, and that suggests that intervention on the bilateral pair may not be successful.

This makes it highly unlikely that the Bank of Japan will intervene. The last time that the BOJ intervened to weaken the yen was in 2003, when over the course of 126 days the Ministry of Finance sold yen in the open market to purchase $315 billion. These measures eventually sent the yen 11% lower.

However, overall success of interventions in changing the long-term path of a currency is less certain--and they only seem to work when nations coordinate their efforts--highly unlikely in this environment. From a historical basis, the G-8 industrialized countries have not intervened in the foreign exchange markets throughout the economic crisis, making intervention impractical and not politically feasible.

So do not expect Japan's Minister of Finance to intervene--unless the yen strengthens beyond 84.8, the multiyear high set last November after the Dubai sovereign debt shock.

Because the yen's strength may aggravate existing disinflationary forces, the prudent course of action would be to increase Japanese government bond purchases in combination with an expansion of policies to accelerate international buying of the instruments.

For all the latest headlines visit Forbes Asia.


One more reason the yen may continue to appreciate: China's activity. Recent data from Japan shows that China has increased its holdings of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) by $6.2 billion in the first trimester of 2010, more than double its previous record in 2005. China bought more JGBs than it sold for the first half of the year, the biggest annual increase since 2005. China then purchased a net 456.4 billion yen ($5.3 billion) of JGB’s in June, following record net buying of 735.2 billion yen in May, according to the Japanese Ministry of Finance.

Japan has also reported large purchases of yen money-market accounts by nonresidents--a total of $10.7 billion from July 11to 17. It would be prudent to assume that a number of these purchases are being made by the Chinese. Because China now says that it pegs its currency to a basket of currencies and not the U.S. dollar, this could tactically be an ideal time for China to readjust its $2.5 trillion dollar reserve portfolio away from the greenback.

China isn’t the largest holder of yen--the U.K. is, and London bought over 26.3 trillion yen last year and have invested another 18.3 trillion yen this year, further powering the currency. Given the weakening U.S. dollar in a soft economy, this creates an opportunity for traders. Expect investors to fuel the yen’s rally and continue to propel the currency to record highs.

Shawn Baldwin is chairman of Capital Management Group, an investment advisory and research firm based in Chicago. Neither he nor his family nor CMG own Japanese government bonds.

For all the latest headlines visit Forbes Asia.

Posted via email from Global Macro Blog

8.18.2010

Michael Novogratz of Fortress Investments on Opalesque.TV (Part 3)

Michael Novogratz of Fortress Investments on OpalesqueTV (Part II)

Malta continues to grow market share in ucits hedge funds - Hedge Funds Review

Malta is considered the newcomer to Ucits hedge funds, although the country’s service providers were well acquainted with the products before EU membership in 2004. Joining up gave Malta’s financial services industry a stamp of approval. This also meant Ucits funds could be passported to other EU member states.

Malta implemented the Ucits III regime immediately on accession. Malta’s choice as a domicile for a Ucits hedge fund is usually based on several factors including the efficiency and flexibility of the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA), quality support services available in the jurisdiction, relatively low set-up and maintenance costs and an exemption from income tax and capital gains tax at fund level and at non-resident investor level, irrespective of the legal form adopted. There is a possibility to set up self-managed funds and fund managers may be established as a Maltese company which allows tax refunds on distribution of dividends. Finally Malta, like other jurisdictions, offers the possibility to redomicile a fund from elsewhere relatively easily. A fund can migrate to Malta without having to be wound up, subject to certain relatively straightforward conditions.

Since EU accession Malta has also built up its hedge funds business. Dermot Butler at Custom House Global Fund Services, the Malta-based parent company of Custom House Group of Companies, says the jurisdiction is basically in the same place Ireland was 15-20 years ago when it first started its funds business. Then people said Ireland had little chance of challenging Luxembourg, remembers Butler, but Ireland went after the alternative sides and built up what has become the leading jurisdiction for fund administration of hedge funds and other alternatives products.

Malta has built up its hedge fund business primarily by attracting the smaller start-ups and emerging managers. The attraction is not just price, although some aspects of Malta’s offering may be cost competitive compared with Ireland and Luxembourg. One of its main selling points, if not the key one, is the regulator. The MFSA has a reputation for having the time to listen to ideas from managers thinking of setting up a fund structure in Malta. It is universally acclaimed to be open and approachable, flexible yet firm. This is a regulator, say those operating in Malta, that takes a sensible no--nonsense approach to regulation.

When applied to Ucits, MFSA is seen as keen to adhere to the spirit as well as the letter of the law. This is important. Some regulators in the EU, say many in Malta, tend to bend the rules in order to allow hedge fund strategies to use a Ucits wrapper even though there is more than a question mark about their suitability as a Ucits product.

The MFSA is still flexible in discussing terms with funds looking to set up a Ucits structure. However, it will seek “comfort” from other regulators or informally consult the committee of European securities regulators (Cesr) if it has questions over the suitability of the structure. “The MFSA is not afraid of referring or consulting. It doesn’t just approve a fund and let the operator face the music,” says Andre Zerafa, a partner at Ganado & Associates.

If there is any doubt that another regulator might not agree with the interpretation of Ucits being used, Zerafa believes there is an obligation to ensure other regulators in the EU will accept the structure. Otherwise, points out Zerafa, a fund could find it is rejected in another jurisdiction and that could cause problems. “The regulator should ensure that if a fund is given a licence it can be passported without any problem,” he says. There have been cases of a jurisdiction giving the green light to a suspect structure only to have other jurisdictions reject it.

Some like Zerafa wonder whether Ucits is a structure suitable for the majority of hedge funds. “Most hedge fund mangers would find it difficult to convert their hedge funds into Ucits hedge funds. It imposes conditions and restrictions they are not used to. At the moment hedge funds are not used to restrictions on how they managing their portfolios. Opening a Ucits hedge fund is a bit like a sex change operation for them. It is not something they do lightly,” notes Zerafa.

Joseph Saliba at law firm MAMO TCV agrees: “There is a question of Ucits hedge funds. To us it is a strange animal.” He says that some hedge fund strategies clearly cannot be made to fit within Ucits: “Ucits hedge funds still need to be tested by the MFSA to ensure the promoter is following the directive’s rules and there are no hiccups.” He points out that the MFSA also is proactive in issuing guidelines and notes to explain its reasoning when implementing directives as well as Maltese regulations.

Zerafa thinks the reason funds are looking at Ucits products reflects the uncertainty over the alternative investment fund managers (AIFM) directive stuck in Brussels. Under Ucits there is at least some certainty, he admits, compared with the uncertainty of whether offshore funds or even onshore regulated funds like Malta’s professional investor funds (PIFs) will be allowed when AIFM finally hits the statute books. PIFs are not regulated as tightly as Ucits funds and are targeted at financially literate investors. Hedge funds, private equity funds and property funds are normally structured as PIFs. These funds can be set up as standard or self-managed schemes.

He points out that if AIFM allows funds that comply with the -directive to be passported across the EU, that could be a better alternative to Ucits, particularly if the fund can operate under a less restrictive regime.

Simon Tortell of Simon Tortell & Associates thinks under Ucits IV, Malta. like others, may find that a master/feeder structure becomes the norm, particularly for US-based hedge fund managers. Under this the master would remain Cayman or -Delaware--domiciled with a feeder fund that is Ucits compliant to allow easier access by European investors.

Tortell also thinks Malta will be well-placed to take advantage of other aspects of Ucits IV, particularly as the country has always allowed hedge funds to outsource services to other EU jurisdictions. This means, for example, that a management company set up under Ucits IV in Malta could keep its fund administration in Luxembourg or Ireland.

Something everyone agrees on in Malta is the lack of choice of custodian. Without a wider selection beyond the two main providers – local domestic Bank of Valletta and international HSBC – few believe Malta will be able to attract a large number of Ucits hedge funds or platforms offering a quick route to a Ucits structure.

While HSBC is recognised worldwide, Bank of Valletta is less well known. “It is a question of a chicken and egg situation,” explains Saliba. “In this case the first step is the custodian which is the chicken. You have them and the eggs, the Ucits funds, will follow.”

Negotiations with a number of global custodians are underway with Malta and many confidently expect at least small operations by a few of them to open before the end of the year. The idea would be to have a relatively small presence and gear up once the business comes in.

Ucits funds are the new black in the Hedge Fund universe. Malta is the the forgotten treasure of Europe, and it has Ucits too.

Posted via email from Global Macro Blog

8.17.2010

Say Yes To The Yen - Forbes.com

Japan's currency will continue its climb.


image

Shawn Baldwin

The Japanese yen recently rallied to 15-year highs against the U.S. dollar along with hitting highs against other major currencies. Throughout the economic crisis, the yen has continued to display strength; while other currencies have seen their gains reduced significantly, the yen has gained over 40% since the economic crisis began--almost 8% of that has been over the last 2 months.

Why does the yen continue to rise?

See the full article at http://www.forbes.com/2010/08/17/yen-currency-foreign-exchange-markets-econom....

Posted via email from Global Macro Blog

Michael Novogratz of Fortress Investments on OpalesqueTV

Fed's Kocherlakota: Markets misinterpreted FOMC’s decision

From Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota: Inside the FOMC

The FOMC’s decision has had a larger impact on financial markets than I would have anticipated. My own interpretation is that the FOMC action led investors to believe that the economic situation in the United States was worse than they, the investors, had imagined. In my view, this reaction is unwarranted. The FOMC’s decisions were largely predicated on publicly available data about real GDP, its various components, unemployment, and inflation. I would say that there is no new information about the current state of the economy to be learned from the FOMC’s actions or its statement.
Kocherlakota points out that the Fed's balance sheet was falling quicker than anticipated because of the high level of refinancing as mortgage rates have declined.

But Kocherlakota fails to note that the mortgage rates have declined because of the weaker economy - and the Fed appears to be behind the curve in adjusting their views lower.

Kocherlakota is forecasting that real GDP growth in the 2nd half of 2010 will be about the same as in the first half:

Based on estimates from our Minneapolis forecasting model, I expect GDP growth to be around 2.5 percent in the second half of 2010 and close to 3.0 percent in 2011. There is a recovery under way in the United States, and I expect it to continue.
Although Kocherlakota forecast is possible - and is a weak recovery - I think the economy will slow in the 2nd half.

And I think the growing view isn't that the economy is worse than investors had imagined, but that the Fed is once again behind the curve on the economic outlook.

Has the market been overreacting to the FOMC's most recent announcement that it will be freezing its balance sheet at current $2.5T by using returns from mortgage-backed securities bought following the collapse of Bear, Lehman and AIG to buy 5- and 10-year treasuries, maintaining its loosy-goosy monetary policy?

Dubbed QE2-lite the FOMC announcement outlined a hybrid of the more radical and oft predicted 'QE2' expansion of the Fed balance sheet, which presumably would have grown to $5T, all in an effort to fight off deflation and unfreeze long-suffering credit markets in the western world. If this sounds like its a 'last-resort' strategy, that's because it is precisely that.

I believe the markets are beginning to prove that the LARGE fundamental underlying problems suffering the international economic and political systems are no longer distant matters for another generation, they are immediate mortal threats to mankind and we are stuck with the current crop of partisan-obsessed talking heads who we all know are bound to fail us terribly whether tomorrow or a year from now..

Posted via email from Global Macro Blog

8.06.2010

And Then There Were Two: Rumor Romer Resigning From Obama Economic Think Tank | zero hedge

First Orszag, now Romer? If the latest rumor about the imminent defection of one of the three remaining policy stalwarts is true, it means the administration's economic policy is on the verge of collapse. Hotline Oncall reports: "Christina Romer, chairwoman of Pres. Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, has decided to resign, according to a source familiar with her plans. Romer, an economics professor at the University of California (Berkeley) before taking the key admin post, did not respond to repeated calls to her office." The sad reality is that Romer's (who has largely been a mere figurehead and staffed to provide soundbites to CNBCs how every worsening NFP report is in reality a dramatic improvement, a job which even Steve Liesman can do with a passing grade) departure will only make the remaining two people in Obama's economic circle, Tim Geithner and Larry Summers, even more powerful. Why couldn't those two leave? Surely both have by now earned their $2.5 million a year job at Goldman... We now anticipate the 8-K from Whitehouse Corp announcing the appointment of Paul Krugman and Mark Zandi to fill the newly vacant positions.

More from Hotline Oncall:
"She has been frustrated," a source with insight into the WH economics team said. "She doesn't feel that she has a direct line to the president. She would be giving different advice than Larry Summers [director of the National Economic Council], who does have a direct line to the president."
"She is ostensibly the chief economic adviser, but she doesn't seem to be playing that role," the source said. The WH has been pounded for its faulty forecast that unemployment would not top 8% after its economic stimulus proposal passed.
Instead, the jobless rate is 9.5%, after exceeding 10% last year. It was "a horribly inaccurate forecast," said Bert Ely, a banking consultant. "You have to wonder why Summers isn't the one that should be taking the fall. But Larry is a pretty good bureaucratic infighter."

Another abrupt exit from the West Wing economic team has left the Obama Administration scrambling for excuses and Ms Romer verbalizing very familiar frustrations to her colleague Peter Orzag, recently retired Budget Czar. Unfortunately, we are stuck with tweedle-dee (Tiny Tim) and tweedle-dumbo (Summers) now and their dominance over the presidents thought on economic policy has only been buffeted by Romer's abrupt exit.